NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (2024)

Blake Schuster

September 21, 2023 4:55 pm ET

Thank you to the Pittsburgh Steelers for ending Week 2 on a high note and covering against the Cleveland Browns with an outright win. Four of our five pickers correctly nailed that game — and considering the other Monday night matchup ended with a push against the spread — we will take it.

Alas, Week 2 proved a bit tougher to predict than expected. It turns out the teams who looked bad in Week 1 may just actually be awful (looking at you Chicago, Las Vegas and Denver). We’ll take all that into consideration as Week 3 gets underway on Thursday night with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Giants.

NameLast WeekYTD
Prince Grimes9-6-119-12-1
Robert Zeglinski9-6-117-14-1
Charles Curtis9-6-116-15-1
Christian D’Andrea6-9-113-18-1
Caroline Darney8-7-112-19-1
Blake Schuster6-9-110-21-1

All odds via BetMGM

New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (1)

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line:49ers -6

Schuster: Giants +10

The 49ers are significantly better than the Giants, but Thursday is were football logic goes to die so give me the points in what will probably be a 17-9 game.

Grimes: 49ers -10

Christian McCaffrey is gonna run all over my precious squad. Then, when the game is out of reach, Elijah Mitchell is gonna run all over my precious squad.

Curtis: 49ers -10

This spread is 10 points too small. Ugh.

Darney: 49ers -10

I am impressed with the Giants’ comeback, but that was the Cardinals. This is the 49ers.

Zeglinski: 49ers -10

Do we get another photo of Daniel Jones looking very sad?

D’Andrea: 49ers -10

Godspeed, Gary Brightwell.

Los Angeles Chargers at Minnesota Vikings

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (2)

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line:Chargers -1.5

Schuster: Chargers -1

The only thing worse than having to trust the Chargers in a close game is having to trust the Vikings in a close game.

Grimes: Vikings +1

I don’t even think the Chargers should be favored, even if the spread is just a single point.

Curtis: Vikings +1

Loser goes 0-3! In a shootout, I’ll say the home team. Plus, I can’t bet on the Chargers until I see them stop losing close games.

Darney: Vikings +1

I see what Blake is saying but also I really don’t trust the Chargers in a close game, and Minnesota is at home.

Zeglinski: Chargers -1:

God help me, I am going to trust the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS only because they’re playing their NFC choking foil. Something’s gotta give, but not for the Vikings.

D’Andrea: Vikings +1.

This line has flipped all over the place because no one knows what the hell these two teams are. Both are horrifically unlucky, but I’ll take Kirk and the points at home against a suspect Chargers secondary.

Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (3)

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports


Opening Line: Bills -4.5

Schuster: Commanders +6.5

Washington can muddy up this game with its solid rushing attack and ultimately keep itself alive until the end of a likely inevitable loss.

Grimes: Commanders +6.5

Josh Allen will have to throw too much, which will lead to some very Josh Allen plays on both sides of the pendulum. Bills win, but give me the points.

Curtis: Bills +6.5

This spread is a hair too large but I can’t help it. This is a game the Bills should win by a touchdown if they’re contenders.

Darney: Commanders +6.5

Bills win, but Howell and the Commanders keep it closer than a TD.

Zeglinski: Commanders +6.5

Washington is a lot better than everyone thinks, but the Bills should still prevail.

D’Andrea: Bills -6.5

The Commanders are frisky, but this line feels too low even after a pair of encouraging performances from Sam Howell.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (4)

(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

Opening Line: Packers -1

Schuster: Saints +2

I’m not quite sure who is going to be the star tailback for New Orleans but it shouldn’t matter as much with that passing attack. Chris Olave is a stud.

Grimes: Saints +2

I have the Packers winning this game by the slimmest of margins, and it could very easily go the other way.

Curtis: Packers -2

I have no idea. I do know I’ll be betting the under, though.

Darney: Packers -2

Let’s hear it for my guy Dontayvion Wicks. He’s emerging as a solid target for Jordan Love.

Zeglinski: Saints +2

New Orleans has quietly formed an elite defense that is on an absolute roll. Jordan Love isn’t ready for this kind of test yet.

D’Andrea: Packers -2.

Jordan Love gets to soak in the adulation of the home crowd and the Packers don’t have to worry about getting smothered by Jamaal Williams or the Saints’ run game.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (5)

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Lions -5

Schuster: Lions -3.5

Another team that can rely on its pass game to truck past the Falcons at home.

Grimes: Falcons +3.5

This is another great line, as I think this finishes within a field goal. Huge game loading for Bijan Robinson.

Curtis: Lions -3.5

Assuming Amon-Ra St. Brown plays, I think I lean Detroit even though the Falcons have looked good to start the year.

Darney: Falcons +3.5

Bijan has fully won me over. Let’s go.

Zeglinski: Lions -3.5

As a known buyer of Detroit hype, I can’t see this team falling under .500 with back-to-back home losses. And not to the Falcons, too, good lord.

D’Andrea: Lions -3.5

I believe in Atlanta. I just believe in Detroit more.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (6)

USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Browns -4.5

Schuster: Titans +3

Getting points against this Cleveland team is a gift no matter how good the Browns’ defense is.

Grimes: Titans +3

The Titans looked respectable last week. The Browns did not — and now no Nick Chubb.

Curtis: Titans +3

No way am I backing the Browns given how Deshaun Watson and the offense has played.

Darney: Titans +3

You couldn’t pay me to actually put money on this game. I don’t like this matchup.

Zeglinski: Titans +3

Tennessee defensive players watched that Watson Monday night game and started salivating.

D’Andrea: Browns -3

Yeah, I don’t love it either. But the defense looks incredible and the Titans aren’t going to get too many more games from Ryan Tannehill like the one he had in Week 2.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (7)

Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Jaguars -7

Schuster: Jaguars -9.5

I don’t love this line but the Jags are so much stronger and hopefully won’t play with their food.

Grimes: Jaguars -9.5

Houston won’t be scoring much in this game.

Curtis: Texans +9.5

Houston’s offense is good enough to cover. Win? A different story.

Darney: Jaguars -9.5

A field goal and a touchdown advantage sounds just about right for Trevor Lawrence & Co.

Zeglinski:Jaguars -9.5

This spread is REALLY big but the Texans just aren’t good enough to hang with Jacksonville yet.

D’Andrea: Texans +9.5

The Jaguars offense has been putrid. So has the Texans, but they’ve got about 10 points to play with here.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (8)

The Providence Journal / Kris Craig

Opening Line: Jets -4.5

Schuster: Patriots -2.5

Bill Belichick never misses an opportunity to hurt Jets fans.

Grimes: Patriots -2.5

Zach Wilson fooled me last week. I’m not letting that happen again.

Curtis: Patriots +2.5

Bill Belichick will dial up all the coverage to confound Zach Wilson.

Darney: Patriots -2.5

No, thank you.

Zeglinski: Jets +2.5:

Mac Jones against Zach Wilson? In 2023? Hmm, gross.

D’Andrea: Patriots -2.5.

Listen if it’s the Rhode Island Scumbag’s Lock of the YEAR, I’m gonna roll with it.

Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (9)

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5

Schuster: Dolphins -6.5

I’m bummed this game is in Miami. Tua would probably pass for 800 yards in that Denver altitude.

Grimes: Dolphins -6.5

This spread is way too small. Miami is going to give Denver a beatdown in the worst way possible.

Curtis: Dolphins -6.5

The Broncos are mediocre, the Dolphins look like contenders. What am I missing?

Darney: Dolphins -6.5

Denver’s comeback attempt was admirable, but the Dolphins are legit.

Zeglinski: Broncos +6.5

I believe in a few vintage Russell Wilson moon shots keeping this game close. (Yeah, I said it.) Someone will eventualy make that Miami defense pay.

D’Andrea: Broncos +6.5

Denver’s defense is going to come back online and the Broncos will probably lead at halftime. Then second half Russ will come out to pave the runway for a four-point loss.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (10)

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line:Ravens -7.5

Schuster: Ravens -7.5

Like Jags-Texans, this game features a serious Super Bowl contender against a club it cannot afford a loss to. This one gets out of hand.

Grimes: Ravens -7.5

It’ll be closer if Anthony Richardson plays but the Ravens offense should have its way in this game.

Curtis: Colts +7.5

This assumes Anthony Richardson plays, and if so, I could see him covering.

Darney: Ravens -7.5

The Ravens just feel like a team that are going to get stuff done this season.

Zeglinski: Ravens -7.5

Lamar Jackson’s better than ever and Baltimore’s locked in. Anthony Richardson isn’t ready for this kind of dogfight yet.

D’Andrea: Ravens -7.5

Lamar Jackson is playing maaaaaad.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (11)

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Seahawks -4

Schuster: Seahawks -6

Road games in Seattle test even the best quarterbacks, Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bryce Young starting for Carolina, it’s going to be a long day.

Grimes: Seahawks -6

The Panthers offense won’t be able to hang in Seattle.

Curtis: Seahawks -6

A rookie QB, on the road, in that environment. Sure, I’ll give six points!

Darney: Seahawks -6

Please get Bryce Young some help, Carolina.

Zeglinski: Seahawks -6

Bryce Young trying to win a road game in front of the 12th Man? Godspeed.

D’Andrea: Seahawks -6

No one can get open for Bryce Young. Meanwhile, the Geno Smith redemption machine is back online.

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (12)

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Cowboys -7

Schuster: Cardinals +12.5

Taking the contrarian pick. That’s a lot of points for a home team, even if the Cowboys look elite.

Grimes: Cowboys -12.5

Arizona has played some close games this season. The Cowboys aren’t the Commanders or Giants.

Curtis: Cowboys -12.5

Micah Parsons will explode. Again.

Darney:Cowboys -12.5

This is going to be ugly.

Zeglinski: Cowboys -12.5

If the Cardinals somehow keep this game competitive, too, I’m not sure they’ll be able to tank.

D’Andrea: Cowboys -12.5.

I bet on a bad team to cover a double-digit spread against the Cowboys last week. I’d like to pretend I learn from my mistakes.

Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (13)

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Opening Line:Chiefs -9.5

Schuster: Chiefs -12.5

The Bears literally do not have a defensive coordinator on staff the week before playing Patrick Mahomes.

Grimes: Chiefs -12.5

This game is going to get out of hand very quickly.

Curtis: Chiefs -12.5

Until I see more out of Justin Fields, I can’t back the Bears.

Darney: Chiefs -12.5

The Bears are a MESS.

Zeglinski: Chiefs -12.5

(glances in the general direction of the Bears’ dumpster fire) How on Earth is this spread this small?

D’Andrea: Chiefs -12.5

Oh everything is bad in Chicago. Like, *everything*.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (14)

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line: Steelers -1.5

Schuster: Steelers -2.5

The defense is very, very legit and the offense just has to be a little competent for it to make a difference.

Grimes: Raiders +2.5

I’m not sure the Raiders win, but Pittsburgh’s offense is too much of a mess for me to lay the points.

Curtis: Steelers +2.5

Pittsburgh’s defense is the thing to focus on here. It’s the two offenses I’m worried about.

Darney: Steelers +2.5

This has a 7-3 final written all over it. Can the Steelers defense also play offense?

Zeglinski: Steelers +2.5

I look forward to Pittsburgh treating Jimmy Garoppolo like he’s hanging from a tree at a kid’s birthday party and has chocolates and other goodies inside of him.

D’Andrea: Raiders +2.5

Hey, if the Steeler defense scores two touchdowns again I’ll accept my loss. But Kenny Pickett, your passing game, woof.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (15)

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Line:Eagles -7

Schuster: Eagles -4.5

The Bucs look pretty decent. The Eagles will remind them they are not.

Grimes: Eagles -4.5

Baker Mayfield’s toughest test yet in Tampa. Let’s see how it goes.

Curtis: Eagles -4.5

The Bucs have looked feisty, the Eagles have looked flat. That will all change this week.

Darney: Eagles -4.5

Philly until they make me think they’re not Super Bowl contenders.

Zeglinski: Eagles -4.5

Tampa Bay is better than expected, but this is a classic contender-pretender matchup. The results will bear out accordingly.

D’Andrea: Eagles -4.5

Philly’s been a little worse for the wear and the Bucs are punching above their weight class. But looking at the talent disparity between these rosters suggests this is a bargain line.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals

NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (16)

(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5

Schuster: Rams +2.5

I just hope Sean McVay knows the spread this week.

Grimes: Rams +2.5

If Burrow is limited, which it seems like he is, I’m taking the points. If the injury isn’t serious, I fully expect him to turn it on at some point. And this would be a good matchup for that to happen.

Curtis: Rams +2.5

This assumes Joe Burrow missed the contest, and even if that wasn’t the case, I might have been tempted to take the points.

Darney: Rams +2.5

Uhh, until I know what’s going on with Joe Burrow…I’ll go with the Rams.

Zeglinski:Rams +2.5

Mid-30s Matthew Stafford is markedly better than a backup QB trying to prop up an 0-2 preseason Super Bowl favorite.

D’Andrea: Rams +2.5

I have no idea what either one of these teams is capable of.

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NFL picks against the spread, Week 3: The Dolphins, Eagles and Bills can cement their elite status (2024)

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